A&G's News Release
University of Oklahoma

Temperatures in Central England 

University of Oklahoma School of Meteorology professor David Karoly released a climate study this week demonstrating that the warming temperatures in central England over the past 40 years can be attributed to human factors and not nature – the first time a significant human influence on climate change has been identified at such a small regional scale.

Since the 1950s, central England’s temperature has risen by 1 degree Celsius.  Along with Peter Stott from the Hadley Centre for Climate Prediction and Research in England, Karoly used computer modeling in comparison to the region’s temperatures to discover if the rise is part of a natural cycle or anthropogenic factors, such as greenhouse gases produced by industry, transport and other human activities.

The researchers say the probability of a natural cycle causing the rise in temperature is less than 1 percent. When anthropogenic variables were added to the model, the results echoed the region’s temperature findings over the last half-decade – meaning human factors are likely the cause of the warming.

The scientists found that “the observed annual mean warming trend over the last 50 years is very unlikely to be due to natural internal climate variability alone.”  In other words, it is very likely human influence has caused the temperature to rise due to increased greenhouse emissions in the atmosphere.

“This warming in central England is already affecting many aspects of life, leading to the recent record temperatures and the much earlier onset of spring,” Karoly said.

The temperatures used in the study were recorded from several sites in central England since 1659 and are oldest records of surface air temperature in the world.

Temperature is measured at three stations and averaged:  Pershore, Rothamstead and Stonyhurst.   

Karoly and Stott’s findings were published on September 18, 2006 in Atmospheric Science Letters.  The study was initiated while Karoly was a Visiting Scientist at the University of Reading in England and the Hadley Centre during June and July, 2005.