The Norman Transcript

Oklahoma's economy continues to send off mixed signals as we near the end of the crucial third quarter. A regional business index rates the state as the highest in four months with durable goods producers-except those making automobiles-leading the way.

The spring closing of the General Motors Assembly Plant in southeast Oklahoma City barley measures a blip on the radar screen. Hundreds of employees were given pink slips. Suppliers that depended on the plant for sales were also hit hard.

But Creighton University's Economic Forecasting Group, which has surveyed nine regional states monthly since 1994, said Oklahoma's overall business index was 64.6 in August, up from 57 in July and 53 in June, according to the Associated Press. The rating system gives each state positive or negative points for certain economic factors. A score of 50 or over indicates an expanding economy over the next three to six months.

The report is based on surveys with business leaders and supply managers in Oklahoma, Arkansas, Iowa, Kansas, Missouri, Minnesota, Nebraska, and North Dakota. Kansas led the region with a rating of 68.2. Oklahoma was second in the region followed by Nebraska, then Arkansas and South Dakota. The states' combined ratings brought the region's rating down to 56.3 from July's 60.2.

The region's confidence index dropped to 47.4. Analysts interviewed by the Associated Press say the ever-increasing cost oil and health care, tacked on to the 17 Federal Reserve rate hikes since May of 2004, are having an impact on business' outlook.

For the region the survey's researchers predict a continued economic cool-down but a soft landing, solid job growth in August and decline of new orders.